The 81st annual Academy Awards will be held on February 22nd, so now I will offer my predictions on the award show. In the order of fairness I must admit there are some films which have been nominated that I have not seen. I will indicate the titles I haven't seen. Therefore my predictions are not based on my personal preferences but public opinion and some critical thinking.
BEST PICTURE: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", "Frost/Nixon", "Milk", "The Reader" and "Slumdog Millionaire"
Going into the Academy Awards, for a long time I thought Ron Howard's "Frost/Nixon" had a good chance of winning the award. It wasn't because it was my favorite movie of the year, it wasn't. I placed "Benjamin Button" on top of my "top ten" list but "Frost/Nixon" had a current vibe to it. Hollywood did not like President Bush, we can tell that by the films that were made while he was in office, "Rendition", "Redacted", "Lions for Lambs", "Fahrenheit 9/11" and so on. Because we just had an election, politics seemed to be on everyones' mind. "Frost/Nixon" is a film about another president Hollywood didn't like, President Nixon. But the theme of political corruption during Nixon's presidency could have been tied to President Bush. I thought the members of the academy would want to "indict" President Bush and allow this film to win.
The problem with my theory was I didn't take into account President Bush would no longer be in office. Hollywood now has a president which they supported, President Obama. The political climate not only in Hollywood but across the U.S. has "changed". The world is now a happy place. The "chosen one" is now our president. America can feel good about itself. Money will soon begin to grow on trees. Everybody wants to feel good and be happy. Hollywood will want to keep this "good will" going and which of the nominees is the "feel good" movie of the year? You guessed it, "Slumdog Millionaire". The movie about an underdog who succeeds. If Hollywood is going to be in a "happy" mood when they vote, this is really their only choice.
But what about "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"? It does have the most Oscar nominations with 13. Does that mean anything? Will this year's Oscars be a sweep like "Titanic" and "Ben-Hur" for "Benjamin Button". If the Academy wants to play it safe this could stand a chance. PREDICTION: Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTOR: Richard Jenkins - "The Visitor", Frank Langella - "Frost/Nixon", Sean Penn - "Milk", Brad Pitt - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and Mickey Rourke - "The Wrestler"
Here is another Oscar race which has more to do with the mindset of the voters rather than the quality of the film or performance. As I said in the "Best Picture" race, Hollywood likes the story of the underdog, here we have a living example, Mickey Rourke, the man who left acting to enter boxing after feeling Hollywood had stiffed him. He was given a second chance in "The Wrestler". Many are claiming it is a comeback, tour-de-force performance. Will Hollywood want to keep the "good will" flowing?
The only other performance which seems to regenerate attention is Sean Penn in "Milk" (I have not seen this movie yet). But once again we have to ask ourselves will politics be on the mind of Oscar votes. A gay marriage bill failed in California. Hollywood supports gay marriage. Will they use the Oscars to set an example? It has happened before and who is to say the Oscars won't get political again? And lets not forget usually when you play a gay man you win awards; Greg Kinnear for "As Good As It Gets", Tom Hanks for "Philadelphia".
Some of my readers my object to my reasoning here in these races but if you really think voters aren't thinking about such things I have a bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in buying. Award shows are nothing more than popularity contest. PREDICTION: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
BEST ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway - "Rachel Getting Married", Angelina Jolie - "Changeling", Melissa Leo - "Frozen River", Meryl Streep - "Doubt" and Kate Winslet - "The Reader"
As far as I'm concerned there really isn't a clear front-runner as is the case with the "Best Actor" race. The Academy likes Streep, she has the most nominations of the nominees this year. And "Doubt" is a good movie, but that is irrelevant. Melissa Leo's nomination is a win in itself. Not many people have seen this movie (myself included) and she and the film should be thankful for the nomination. It will help boost DVD rentals and sales. It has already reopened here in Chicago.
The big shock in this category is that Sally Hawkins was left out for her performance in Mike Leigh's minor "Happy-Go-Lucky". Either Leo and/or Winslet was put in instead. Winslet won a Golden Globe for her performance for "The Reader" in the "Best Supporting Actress" category. A lot of people think she is a good actress. Hathaway I think is too young, but steadily proving she is a good actress. I think her performance in "Rachel" is probably the best of her career, so far. PREDICTION: Kate Winslet - The Reader
BEST DIRECTOR - Danny Boyle - "Slumdog Millionaire", Stephen Daldry - "The Reader", David Fincher - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", Ron Howard - "Frost/Nixon" and Gus van Sant - "Milk"
Here we have a rematch of the five "Best Picture" nominees. Usually the "Best Picture" Oscar and the "Best Director" Oscar go together. Yes, before people start to jump down my throat, that is not always the case. Steven Spielberg won for "Saving Private Ryan" but "Shakespeare in Love" won "Best Picture" for example. But, more times than not, the "Best Director" Oscar winner is the person who directed the "Best Picture" winner. I see no reason to think it won't happen here. PREDICTION: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Josh Brolin - "Milk", Robert Downey Jr. - "Tropic Thunder", Philip Seymour Hoffman - "Doubt", Heath Ledger - "The Dark Knight" and Michael Shannon - "Revolutionary Road"
No need to have the category this year. The sentimental favorite will win, hands down! PREDICTION: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams - "Doubt", Penelope Cruz - "Vicky Cristina Barcelona", Viola Davis - "Doubt", Taraji P. Henson - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and Marisa Tomei - "The Wrestler"
Two of this year's nominees I don't understand. Why is Viola Davis nominated? Like Melissa Leo, she should consider the nomination a win in itself. I hate when the Academy nominates what is really a cameo. Judi Dench won for her 8 minute performance in "Shakespeare in Love". For what? Viola Davis is not supporting the movie she is supporting a scene. Taraji P. Henson was another surprise to me. She was part of "Benjamin Button's" Oscar sweep. But I don't think she stands a chance of winning.
It has been a good year for Penelope Cruz. She was in one of my favorite movies of the year, "Elegy" which received a total amount of ZERO Oscar nominations but has received much praise for her performance here. And the Academy likes to let actors in Woody Allen movies win; Diane Keaton ("Annie Hall"), Michael Caine ("Hannah & Her Sisters"), Diane Wiest ("Hannah & Her Sisters", "Bullets Over Broadway") and Mira Sorvino ("Mighty Aphrodite"). PREDICTION: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Courtney Hunt - "Frozen River", Mike Leigh - "Happy-Go-Lucky", Martin McDonagh - "In Bruges", Dustin Lance Black - "Milk" and Andrew Stanton & Peter Docter "WALL.E"
The Academy might feel bad about not nominating Sally Hawkins and want to make up for it by giving the award to Leigh as a sort of compensation, but I find it unlikely. "Milk" doesn't stand a good chance of winning either. It is Sean Penn's performance which generates the buzz. "WALL.E" I actually think stands a chance. It has a nice timely and liberal message. Will the voters be in a political frame of mind? "WALL.E" is certain to win the "Best Animated Film" award, so will the Academy also want to let it win this award too? I'm not sure about that. That leaves us with only one strong contender left. PREDICTION: Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Eric Roth & Robin Swicord - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", John Patrick Sanley - "Doubt", Peter Morgan - "Frost/Nixon", David Hare - "The Reader" and Simon Beaufoy - "Slumdog Millionaire"
I would immediately eliminate "The Reader" and "Slumdog Millionaire" from this award. That leaves us with three very good contenders. I find it hard to believe "Benjamin Button" would score 13 nominations and not win a single major award, can that be? The Academy must have liked the movie. But the screenplay for "Doubt" is probably what drives the movie and I don't think any of the actors will win. Will the Academy want to compensate and give it the screenplay award? The same can be said for "Frost/Nixon". Will the Academy feel compelled to give these movies some Oscar love? This is a tough race to try and guess where the Academy will want to go. I feel it will come down to these three screenplays however. PREDICTION: John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
I'm not going to go into all of the categories. My guess is "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" will win all of the technical awards it is nominated for. "WALL.E" will win the "Animated Film" category but part of me wonders what would have happened if "Waltz with Bashir" would have been put in that category instead of "Foreign Film". "Bashir" will probably win the "Foreign Language" category. It is an amazing film. Sure to be on my "top ten" list for 2009.
So there you have my predictions. Remember, these predictions were not based on my personal favorites. Again, the Oscars will be given on February 22nd.
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